scientists It points out that the phosphorus cycle has been “broken” for over a decade. Mankind has unearthed a large amount of elements.
The problem comes down to crap. Humans and livestock eat crops and excrete phosphorus as a result. (Researchers at the University of Iowa calculated that the state’s livestock produce as much manure as the country’s 168 million people.) But most of it never feeds the plants again. . Waste treatment allows sludge and manure to be turned back into manure, but transportation and disposal are often impractical. As such, it may be placed in stockpiles or “dry stacks” without a chance to grow another crop.
Or maybe your system is leaking. Phosphorus from sewage, septic tanks, stockpiles and eroded soils drips into oceans and rivers, diluting it into oblivion and degrading ecosystems. Phosphorus runoff, for example, kills Florida’s seaweed and encourages the growth of noxious algae that starve thousands of manatees.
According to Demay’s model, in 67 years, humans will billion tons Introduction of non-renewable phosphorus into the food system. Her team’s numbers are based on statistics from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Global data, disaggregated by country, report agricultural output such as wheat production and numbers of pigs and cattle from 1961 to 2017 (data from 1950 to 1961 are other data set. )
Her team also analyzed usage trends. In 2017, reliance in Western Europe, North America, and Asia climbed to nearly 60% of her total available plant-ready phosphorus in soils in each region. Brazil, China, and India see rapid growth to 61%, 74%, and 67% respectively. Figures for France and the Netherlands are no longer increasing as fertilizers replace the use of rock phosphate. Currently they are hovering around 70% to 50%. However, in African countries like Zimbabwe, the lack of soil phosphorus limits the yield. Demay estimates that mineral fertilizer use in Zimbabwe is fixed at a range of 20-30%, even lower than the overall African average of 32%.
For Elser, this highlights global inequality. Poorer countries have far less access to fertilizers, even though they need more. And while wealthy countries have been able to accumulate stockpiles from rock reserves for decades, countries struggling with food security cannot afford to do the same.
This raises concerns about who will control the future of fertilizers. Nearly 75% of the world’s supply is in mines in Morocco and Western Sahara. Economists get nervous when commodities fall into the hands of a few powerful people. (OPEC controls about the same portion of the world’s oil, 13 Member States. )
And it’s not entirely clear how long the supply will last. Cordell estimated in 2009 that a global “Peak Phosphorus” moment could occur as early as 2030, and from 50 to 100 years, reserves could decline. Today, she and her Elser are likely to peak, although it’s hard to predict when demand could surge for other applications, such as lithium iron phosphate batteries. I agree with you. Elser points out that the current new analysis puts the maximum supply at about 300 to 400 years.
