The move to electric vehicles could lead to lithium shortages unless the United States and other countries rethink their transportation systems and move away from private cars as their primary mode of transportation.
A simple conversion of existing U.S. cars to battery-powered electric cars, for example, would produce three times more cars than the world currently produces by 2050, according to new research from the University of California, Davis and the Climate and Community Project. of lithium is required.
A surge in demand for lithium could also cause other problems, such as growing environmental damage and worsening international tensions over the supply of metals that are primarily mined outside the United States.
The report argues that widespread changes in transportation systems, combined with intensive recycling of lithium batteries, could significantly reduce demand for lithium. These include increased use, denser urban development, and micro-mobility solutions such as e-bikes and scooters.
Thea Riofrancos, a political scientist at Providence College who worked on the report, said:
Today, the world produces just over 100,000 tons of lithium annually. In the baseline scenario established by the researcher, the United States alone would require 306,000 tonnes per year by 2050. This assumes that the transportation system will remain the same and that consumers will buy vehicles with batteries roughly the same size as those used in electric sedans today.
In a worst-case scenario of unchanged systems and a significant increase in battery size, the United States could consume 483,000 tons of lithium per year by 2050. This is because the vehicle is Ford’s F-150 Lightning Pickup or GM’s recently introduced electric Hummer, which weighs his 9,000 pounds and has a heavier battery than some cars (energy wireJanuary 12).
On the other end of the spectrum, US lithium demand could decline by more than 90% from the worst case scenario by 2050. In addition to increased use of public transport, micro-mobility, a shift to denser communities, and options such as walking and biking, this scenario will require smaller car batteries, and virtually all It is assumed that the batteries in are recycled at the end of their life.
The report comes with some warnings that can affect your results. For example, battery companies are looking for ways to extract more power from smaller batteries, and miners around the world are looking to ramp up lithium production.
Lithium is essential to making EV batteries, but it’s produced in only one mine in the United States: Silver Peak, Nevada, operated by Albemarle Corp.green wire14 October 2022).
Australia, Chile, China and Argentina account for about 95% of global production, according to the report.
Globally, demand for lithium is expected to soar to six times current levels, requiring 50 new mines, the International Energy Agency concluded in a report last year.
The Biden administration has recently made moves to increase domestic access to minerals such as lithium at home and abroad.
Earlier this month, the Department of Energy provided a $700 million contingent loan guarantee for a facility that will process lithium from a mine in southwestern Nevada (green wireJanuary 13).
However, such projects can be subject to volatile approvals and permits. The Nevada plant, which is still undergoing an environmental review, is objected for its proximity to the only known habitat of teems buckwheat, a yellowish wildflower recently listed as endangered by the Fish and Wildlife Service. facing the (green wireDecember 14, 2022).
The administration is also looking abroad to strengthen the battery minerals supply chain. The United States and its allies, forming the so-called Mineral Security Partnership, are scrutinizing 16 projects, from extraction to processing to recycling, that will be required to meet high humanitarian and environmental standards (green wireJanuary 23).
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
