Rising demand for air travel is hampering the aviation industry’s efforts to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Either we need a carbon offset or we need to reduce the number of passengers.
environment
January 30, 2023
Aircraft contrails create clouds that trap heat, increasing the climate impact of the aviation industry Bogdan Vacarciuc V/Shutterstock
A surge in global demand for air travel and air freight means that the airline industry will need to spend $1 trillion on carbon offsets by 2050 to achieve a net zero climate impact. increase.
This estimate comes from a study of the possible paths the aviation industry can take to reach net zero. The industry’s climate impact includes carbon emissions from burning jet fuel (aviation accounted for 3% of global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2019) and even bigger factors such as aircraft contrails. , which can create clouds that trap more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Steven Davis of the University of California, Irvine, and his colleagues modeled nine scenarios to portray the carbon costs of aviation through 2050. Aviation Fuel – We found that the aviation industry will need to spend at least $60 billion on carbon offsets by 2050.
“An industry cannot have a net zero impact on the climate. [carbon] I’ll remove it,” Davis says.
Some airlines may be tempted to buy carbon offsets in general rather than directly reduce their climate impact if it proves to be the cheapest route. , “there is a lot of debate about carbon dioxide removal,” says Candelaria Bergero of the University of California, Irvine, as to whether it will have a meaningful impact.
Declining demand for air travel could contribute significantly to net-zero aviation, but trends point in the opposite direction. , but given the projected growth in global population and affluence, all of our scenarios expect overall demand to increase by mid-century,” Davis said.
Substituting with biofuels or synthetic fuels can also help, but only to a certain extent. Absent an extreme decline in aviation demand, the demand for sustainable aviation fuel in all scenarios would more than double the global production of biofuels in 2019. Cropland – Equivalent to one-third the size of the United States.
Also, despite the fanfare of hydrogen-powered aircraft and electric aircraft with improved batteries, such technology is only capable of powering smaller aircraft and sustaining short flights, thus reducing aviation climate. Davis says it is unlikely to make much of a difference in mitigating the impact of
The airline industry has set ambitious targets to improve aircraft energy efficiency by more than 2% annually, which alone could offset more than half of future air travel demand growth, Davis said.
“Reducing the cost of zero-emission aircraft requires new technologies that significantly improve the efficiency of both fuel production and aircraft propulsion,” said Grigory Solovechik, former program director for energy at the US Advanced Research Projects Agency. .
On the other hand, companies that make conscious travel decisions could help the airline industry transition to net-zero aviation. “I see a real opportunity for corporate action in favor of more efficient aircraft, low contrail flights, and the increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuels in particular,” he says.
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