Global emissions have seen a seesaw in recent years, with a sharp decline in 2020 amid pandemic lockdowns, a recovery in 2021, and a further rise in 2022.
Experts say 2023 could mark the beginning of an emissions stagnation as the world’s largest emitters experience slowing growth and increase investment in renewable technologies. But uncertainty reigns, especially over whether the world can initiate the emission cuts needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“I think we’re still in a world where global emissions are fairly flat,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist who works for payments processing firm Stripe. We are unlikely to see any reductions.The flattening is still better than we have seen in previous decades, but it will take time for the energy transition to gain momentum.”
Emissions may have increased in 2022. Carbon Monitor, an academic emissions tracker, estimates that emissions through October were 1.8% higher than their 2021 levels. This is well below his 5% increase predicted by the Global Carbon Project in 2021, as rising inflation and interest rates dampened the economic recovery.
So what about 2023? Below are four trends that will shape the trajectory of global emissions in the coming years.
1. It’s the economy, idiot
Historically, the easiest way to predict an increase in emissions is to check the global economic outlook. Economic growth has historically meant increased energy consumption and emissions. A recession is usually the opposite.
Many forecasters have lowered their growth forecasts for 2023. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, recently said she expects economic growth in China, the United States and Europe to slow.
But it remains to be seen how slow the pace will be and whether the world will plunge into recession.
The world’s three major economies face great uncertainty. Will the US economy continue to put the brakes on interest rate hikes in 2023?Europe has phased out Russian gas shipments in 2022, thanks to a combination of energy savings, liquefied natural gas imports and a warmer climate. Will it be possible to repeat the success of the year?
Next is China. Global emissions growth in 2022 was relatively subdued, partly due to the impact of China’s “Zero Covid” policy and its impact on the Chinese economy. However, the country recently withdrew that policy. This is a decision that will undoubtedly affect our outlook for 2023.
“Making up for lost time in the Chinese economy could significantly increase global emissions,” Hausfather said. At the same time, he said, emissions growth could slow if a wave of COVID-19 cases disrupts the Chinese economy.
2. Rapid increase in green investment
One of the biggest developments in recent years has been the surge in clean energy spending.
The International Energy Agency estimates that such spending has increased by 12% annually since 2020. In 2021, China will take the lead with her $380 billion clean energy investment, followed by the European Union with her $260 billion and the United States with $215 billion. By contrast, investment in oil, coal and gas has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
All before the US considers even more clean energy spending in 2022. The Inflation Reduction Act provides her with a $369 billion clean energy tax credit over the next decade. Congress has also pumped money into this area through the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the CHIPS and Science Act.
According to Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University, clean energy spending in the United States will total about $900 billion over the next decade. How that money is spent is one of the big trends to watch for him in 2023.
“The fact that the US has entered this clean energy race has had a huge impact on the global economy,” he said.
Countries were already slowing their emissions growth before the money came in. During his first decade in the 2000s, emissions increased by an average of 3% per year. The rate has slowed to 0.5% annually over the past decade, according to the Global Carbon Project. This decline is in line with declining coal power generation in the US and Europe, suggesting a greener global economy.
“The world’s richest economies have decoupled economic growth from CO2 emissions,” Wagner said.
Yet Wagner quickly realized that total emissions were still increasing. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise in China and India, which still rely on coal. America and Europe did not suddenly abandon fossil fuels.
A recent analysis of 2021 emissions by the Rhodium Group found the post-pandemic lockdown economic recovery to be particularly carbon-intensive, with demand for fossil fuels growing faster than gross domestic product in the US and Europe. indicates that there is
“None of this is a success in the sense that emissions are going down. How nice,” Wagner said. “This means we are adding less and less to the atmosphere, but we are still adding it.”
3. Popularization of EVs and heat pumps
Climate change advocates have long lamented the lack of greening of transportation and buildings. In that sense, 2022 brought welcome news. According to the International Energy Agency, electric heat pumps that can replace oil or gas furnaces in buildings are hitting record sales.
Meanwhile, sales of electric vehicles continue to grow rapidly. According to the IEA, nearly 10% of global car sales will be electric in 2021, four times his market share in 2019. By his first three quarters of 2022, total EV sales reached 14% of his market, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
With transport and buildings accounting for almost a quarter of global emissions, both trends are worth watching in 2023. But neither are likely to move the emissions needle in the next few years.
why?
People don’t tend to buy new cars and furnaces every year. For example, in the US, the average vehicle age is 12 years.
“Equity volumes are not your friend in areas like EV adoption,” said Ben King, an analyst who tracks U.S. emissions for the Rhodium Group. “It will take time for these changes to become apparent.”
4. Coal vs. Renewables
Short-term emissions reductions depend on moving to cleaner power plants. But last year saw something of a tug-of-war between renewables and coal.
Record amount of renewable power generation prevents nearly 600 million tonnes of additional CO22 According to the IEA, emissions, or roughly how much Germany produces in a year (climate wire, October 20, 2022). But the world is also setting records for coal power, with Asia and Europe turning to carbon-intensive fuels in the face of rising natural gas prices.
So what will happen in 2023 and beyond? The IEA expects renewable energy to grow at lightning speed over the next five years. In a recent report, the IAEA predicted that by 2027 the world will have installed 2,400 gigawatts of renewable capacity. This is equivalent to all the power capacity currently installed in China and 30% more renewable capacity than the IEA predicted just one year ago.
“If anything other than a recession will lead to a significant reduction in global emissions, it will likely be renewable energy,” Hausfather said.
But don’t expect the coal to run out any time soon. Europe’s recovery in coal use is likely to be short-lived, but Asia looks set to rely on carbon-intensive fuels for the next few years.India’s coal consumption has increased by 6% annually since 2007. and may continue to be the engine of global coal growth.
China is a big question mark. The IEA projects that China’s coal use will grow at a rate of just under 1% annually through 2025, hitting a plateau in global coal consumption.
Coal is the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the world. Therefore, emissions analysts2 Output is also likely to level off over the next few years.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
