According to the policy framework, two new Danish offshore wind farms could cost the government up to DKK 47 billion in subsidies, but a researcher and energy analyst suggests that the actual subsidy amount could be significantly lower, reports the media outlet Finans
Up to DKK 27.4 billion has been allocated to Hesselø and up to DKK 19.6 billion to Nordsø Midt, but energy consultant Hans Henrik Lindboe, a partner at Ea Energianalyse, estimates – based on his own calculations for Finans – that the state will instead end up paying around DKK 20 billion in total subsidies over 20 years.
“If there is strong and healthy competition for these wind farms, I wouldn’t be worried that it will cost the state DKK 47 billion. I would expect it to cost around DKK 20 billion,” says Hans Henrik Lindboe, partner at Ea Energianalyse, according to the media outlet Finans.
Brian Vad Mathiesen, a professor at Aalborg University, also expects the bill to be lower.
The support is provided through a so-called two-way CfD scheme, where the state may end up paying developers when electricity prices are low and receiving money back when electricity prices are high; the total support requirement therefore depends in particular on the developers’ bid prices and electricity prices after 2032.
However, according to Finans, the research firm Aegir Insights, represented by analyst Thomas Jensen, believes that the companies may need a significant portion of the allocated funding, and that the final bill may therefore be closer to the ceiling than to the most optimistic estimates.
