Ukraine to get Patriot missiles. Is this a game changer?

On December 21, 2022, the US government announced in a notable shift in policy that it would supply Ukraine with Patriot missile systems to help fight Russia. On January 5, Germany announced that it would also transmit the Patriot system. Does this mark a major shift in warfare, or is there more to the story? Let’s take a look at the new Atlas.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its second year, NATO members and those who support Kyiv’s resistance to Russia have begun to change their policies, offering not only more money but also the initially unthinkable. We also offer deaf advanced weapons and training. war.

Fearing the danger of escalating the conflict, major powers have withheld weapons systems Russia might deem provocative, but in December the Biden administration confirmed it would send one battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. That changed things. Part of his new $1.85 billion military aid package.

“Today’s assistance includes, for the first time, cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and the Patriot air defense system, which can shoot down aircraft at much higher ceilings than previously offered air defense systems,” the Secretary of State said. Anthony Brinken.

This is a big change from the beginning of the conflict. In March 2022, Poland asked Germany to hand over its Patriot launchers to Ukraine, but the latter refused on the grounds that it did not want to escalate the war. Now the Patriots have everything that it stands for.

patriot missile system

The Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercepting Targeted (Patriot) Air Defense Systems, also known as the Patriot Missile System, is a surface-to-air missile and anti-ballistic system. Built by Raytheon Technologies as prime contractor, it is considered one of the most sophisticated defense systems of its kind in the world.

was born as an alternative to Nike Hercules Missile System Named Patriot in the 1960s and Patriot in 1976.First deployed to Europe by US forces in the final years of the Cold War.Aimed at Israel and Saudi Arabia. During this conflict, the U.S. government claimed her 60% success rate for interception, which was unheard of at the time.

Currently, Patriots are in service in about 17 countries, with the United States fielding 1,106 Patriot launchers in 15 battalions. Additionally, several variants were released as the system was upgraded, and the system has achieved remarkable success in many conflicts.

Able to intercept multiple targets at ranges of 20 to 100 miles (32 to 160 km), the Patriot system is mounted on a truck with up to four launcher canisters and four missiles in each canister. Each battery consists of a power plant, a phased array radar system, an engagement control station, a launcher, an antenna mast group, and the missile itself. Radars detect potential threats, engagement control stations calculate interception trajectories, and antenna mast groups provide communications to batteries. In flight, the radar guides the missile to its target.

The missile itself is about 17 feet (5.2 m) long and about 16 inches (42 cm) in diameter. Solid-fueled, flying at supersonic speeds, reaching altitudes of 80,000 feet (24,000 m) and destroying targets by either direct impact or proximity fuze detonation with a 200-pound (90 kg) warhead packed with high explosives. I can. and shrapnel.

Each artillery battery requires 90 men to deploy and sustain, while only 3 men are required for combat interception at the control station. However, it is not cheap. Each armed battery costs him $1 billion, and each round costs him $4 million per shot.

Is this a game changer?

The big question with the Patriot is whether sending it to Ukraine will change the game. The short answer is probably not.

The US has sent only one battery to the conflict, and Germany has provided only one as well. Due to the system’s limited range and low mobility, two batteries cannot defend a very large range. Even when deployed in the Kyiv capital, it could only cover a small sector.

Worse, these batteries take months to arrive, and even when they do, crew training is problematic. It will take him 13 weeks to train a launch operator and 53 weeks to train a maintenance technician.

Then there is the question of where to train them, which is very tricky as NATO prefers to keep its soldiers as openly as possible in Ukraine to avoid escalation. agreed to train Ukrainian soldiers with the Patriots.

Another question is how to use the Patriot. Effective, but also expensive. It’s one thing to shoot down a long-range cruise missile that costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, but firing a $4 million missile to destroy a drone that costs $50,000 is almost cost effective. is not. The limited rounds will require some decision-making about the rules of engagement against the Russian military, which over time relies heavily on cheap Iranian drones.

symbolism

Ultimately, the effectiveness of the Patriot system can be more symbolic and psychological than tactical. One of the key aspects of the Ukraine war is morale, with both sides trying to demoralize the other while boosting the other’s morale. The Patriot already has an international reputation and could have a significant impact on demoralized Russian soldiers far beyond its actual military utility. This could be a powerful deterrent to Russia’s air force and missile forces, which have already suffered enormous losses.

Moreover, the deployment of the Patriots is a diplomatic symbol for Ukraine, which has clamored for NATO support, and fears that this support may weaken in the face of energy shortages and other uncertainties in Europe and the United States. often worried. At least the US deployment is a sign of commitment.

Such an effort is important because the Ukrainian invasion has sparked an arms sales boom and the Patriot has become a hot item on international markets. Should the war continue and Kyiv depletes its current stock of Patriot missiles, it will need assurance that supplies will be on hand.

In any case, Russians take the Patriot seriously.President of Russia Vladimir Putin has threatened to destroy the Patriot missile defense system, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the Kremlin sees the Patriot as an escalation and the missiles will be “destroyed or seized”.

That’s what’s known as hitting the nerve.