hello. Back to Max Q. I hope you all had a restful holiday season and a festive New Year. Thanks again to all Max Q readers. thank you.
Depart from the usual format of newsletters. Instead, I’d like to run the risk of going completely blank at the end of 2023 to make a prediction for next year and what I think it will bring to the space industry.
could have been 2022 of The biggest hit year for the universe in recent memory — at least since 1969. It’s been a momentous year, with SpaceX’s historic steps, the launch of the Space Launch System, the return of the Orion capsule, large-scale technical demonstrations and ispace’s fully private lunar mission.
I have many Looking forward to it — next year could even surpass this as the biggest yet for the space industry. But many questions still remain, particularly around the near-term economic outlook, ongoing geopolitical instability, and (ahem) whether some of the announced timelines will materialize.Here 2 I have one prediction. Read the rest by clicking the link above.
1. More Pressure to Launch
As more next-gen vehicles come online, it’s clear that pressure on the launch market will increase. We are looking for large rockets such as SpaceX’s Starship and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, as well as a number of small and medium rockets aimed at low cost and high cadence. These include Relativity’s Terran 1, Astra’s Rocket 4, ABL Space Systems’ RS1, Rocket Factory Augsburg’s One Launcher, and Orbex’s Prime Micro Launcher. As mentioned above, the space industry’s timeline is notoriously complicated (this caveat applies to the entire article), but at least a few new rockets could fly for the first time next year. I have.
Image credit: space x
As new car sales prove, prices drop and inventories increase. That means more launch dates and launch dates available to private companies and government agencies. Existing players will have to work hard to maintain their established lead.
2. Major progress from UK, China and India
The international space scene continues to grow. We have a lot to look forward to in Europe, but we have our sights set on the UK, China and India. The UK is expected to make its first space launch with her Virgin Orbit ‘Start Me Up’ mission from Spaceport Cornwall. We also expect a lot of activity from the Indian Space Research Institute and the startup Skyroot that was launched there. China has a big year in her 2022. Completed its own space station in orbit and sent multiple astronauts. We do not expect China to slow down next year as it tries to keep pace with US industrial growth.
It’s hard to say exactly how the decentralization of private space across a handful of major launch providers and locations will affect the industry, but it’s important to diversify the projects and stakeholders that get on track. I have no doubt that it will be useful.
Image credit: Virgin Orbit/Greg Robinson
Learn more about forecasting here.
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