Limiting global warming to within 1.5 degrees Celsius “is currently not plausible,” warns a new report from the University of Hamburg. The rapid and transformative social change needed to reach that goal is not happening fast enough.
The less ambitious 2 C target could still be in the cards, the report adds. But it will require world leaders to set more ambitious climate targets for their countries and act quickly.
Known as the Hamburg Climate Future Outlook, the report examines the factors that influence the world’s ability to meet global climate goals. Countries participating in the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming below 2 C, while striving for a more ambitious 1.5 C target.
Latest report from UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveals that meeting these goals will require immediate and rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to A threshold of 1.5 C would require global emissions to be net zero by 2050, and the IPCC has warned that the next he should drop by about half within a decade.
However, research consistently finds that global climate action is not moving fast enough to keep up with these requirements. According to the UN’s latest annual emissions gap report, which assesses global progress towards the Paris target, climate policies currently in place around the world are sufficient to meet the 1.5C or even 2C target. is not.
Studies show that humanity could cross the 1.5 C threshold in about 10 years. Achieving it is still technically possible, but climate scientists and policy experts are increasingly acknowledging that it probably won’t happen if world leaders take the necessary steps soon. (climate wire11 November 2022).
A new report from Hamburg confirms these concerns.
The report examines 10 different societal factors that could affect the world’s ability to achieve “substantial decarbonization” in time to meet the Paris goals. These include UN governance, transnational initiatives, climate-related regulations, climate protests and social movements, climate lawsuits, corporate responses, fossil fuel sales, consumption patterns, journalism, and the production of knowledge on climate change. included.
According to the report, no single country globally supports significant decarbonization by 2050.
Most of them are, in general, going in the right direction. They are not yet proactive enough to respond to the transformative social changes needed to reach the 1.5°C target.
Journalism has conflicting effects, the report notes. Depending on media organisations, platforms and storytelling, they can either promote or hinder climate change action.
And two societal forces are actively hindering global efforts to reach 1.5C. corporate response and global consumption patterns. The report notes that “the vast majority of companies have yet to respond adequately to support decarbonisation.”
Social changes are further complicated by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the report adds.
The 2020 global lockdown has temporarily reduced global carbon emissions. But as the world reopened, recovery efforts aimed at revitalizing the global economy likely made the world more dependent on fossil fuels, the report suggests.
The long-term consequences of Russia’s war are less clear. But experts fear that future dependence on fossil fuels could become even more entrenched as places like Europe look for alternatives to Russia’s fuels.
The report also looks at several physical climate factors that could influence the rate of future warming. These include various feedback mechanisms and tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.
For example, permafrost is a common concern among climate scientists. As the Earth warms and frozen soils in the coldest places on Earth begin to thaw, large amounts of climate-warming carbon dioxide and methane could be released into the atmosphere. These emissions could, in theory, further accelerate the rate of global warming.
Other potential physical drivers include melting of the Earth’s ice sheets and loss of sea ice. Potential slowing of the huge heat-carrying ocean currents. And the collapse of the giant Amazon rainforest, which stores billions of tons of carbon in its trees and soil.
Many of these drivers are a cause for serious concern in the long run. However, the report notes that the impact between now and 2050 is likely to be relatively small.
This means that social rather than physical factors remain the main barriers to achieving Paris’ goals. This is another nail in the coffin of the rapidly approaching 1.5 C target.
“The necessary decarbonization is just moving too slowly,” says Anita Engels, a social scientist at the University of Hamburg and co-author of the report.
It’s not all bad news. The report notes that the 2°C target remains relevant as long as the world takes immediate action to get back on track.
In the meantime, the report also recommends that policymakers begin more serious efforts to adapt to an increasingly likely post-1.5 C world. It means preparedness for rising sea levels, increasing food insecurity, forced climate change, extreme weather and climate disasters.
Rather than waiting for that world to arrive, the report emphasizes the importance of planning ahead, with a particular focus on the world’s most vulnerable people and places.
“To prepare for a warmer world, we need to anticipate change, engage affected parties and leverage local knowledge,” said Engels. “Instead of just reacting, we need to start making positive changes here and now.”
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals
