Climate Wire | As world leaders meet later this year to negotiate action on climate change, the urgency to cut emissions that contribute to global warming will be more urgent than ever.
The world now needs to reduce emissions by 60% compared to 2019 levels by 2035. This is to avoid the increasingly severe heat, floods, droughts and extreme weather that make parts of the world uninhabitable. This is the key conclusion of the latest assessment by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of the world’s leading climate scientists.
This target exceeds countries’ 43% reductions by 2030 and is being negotiated at the annual UN climate conference, known as the COP. It also underscores the need for radical action at a time when countries are already falling short of their pledged emission reductions.
“It is very clear that countries really need to step up their travel direction. said David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at .
As delegates gather for COP 28 in the United Arab Emirates in late November, a much greater need for action is likely to come to mind. Climate negotiations are where countries assess their progress (or lack of progress) towards meeting his 2030 climate goals, a process known as the global stocktake.
How countries respond to that assessment will determine whether they can limit global temperature rise to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius and reach zero emissions by 2050. It will also be important to set clear deadlines for 2030 and he said 2035, Waskopf said.
So far, the signs aren’t encouraging.
Even if the science becomes more compelling, most countries, including the United States, will need a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, and even a 60% (climate wireMarch 21).
According to a United Nations report last year, global temperatures are set to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius under current national policies.
To spur more action, UN Secretary-General António Guterres earlier this week called on rich countries to achieve net zero emissions by 2040. This is a decade ahead of the targets set by most developed countries (green wireMarch 20).
But that call is unenforceable. There has also been little reaction, aside from recent comments by Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen that the European Union may exceed its pledge to cut emissions by 55% by 2030. not shown.
Jorgensen spoke at a press conference as he hosted a meeting with dozens of climate officials to formulate the COP 28 agenda. Observers say the timing of the IPCC report may have prompted those officials to consider what climate countries need to offer.
“The question is whether the political system will respond in the way it needs to,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at E3G.
One of the major challenges is that many countries, including the hosts of this year’s climate negotiations, are still rated as failing by climate monitors.
The Climate Action Tracker, an independent analysis of climate policy, expects UAE emissions to rise by 2030 due to plans to increase gas use. If the country’s current climate targets require emissions to be cut by almost half, emissions will plateau, but not decrease.
“Ideally, the UAE would take the lead as the organizers of COP28 and propose targets to support this, along with further reductions after 2035,” says the Climate Action Tracker, which monitors the Middle East. Mia Moisio said in an email.
The UAE relies heavily on the oil and gas sector. But the country is making considerable efforts to diversify its economy, which could pave the way for other oil and gas producers, Moisio added.
“Addressing these issues and agreeing to a global fossil fuel phase-out at COP28 is a big step forward,” she said.
‘We’re not done in 2030’
The IPCC’s latest climate assessment does not just focus on the need to drastically reduce emissions. It also points to the need for greater equity between rich and poor countries, the importance of investing in resilience, and the availability of the many tools needed to stop the planet from overheating.
But the report’s main conclusion underscores the message that emissions are not declining fast enough. The 2035 emissions reduction target conveys that message. This is a deliberate move by the authors of the report.
Another IPCC report from last year revealed that the world needs to cut emissions by 60% by 2035. However, according to a session summary by the Earth Negotiations Bulletin, China reported that it initially wanted to remove the projection for 2035, but agreed to include it in tabular form.
Detlef Van Vuuren, professor at Utrecht University and author of the IPCC assessment, writes: on mail. “Hopefully, the numbers will guide the government’s further decision-making.”
By 2025, countries should set new climate targets, known as nationally determined contributions. But with another IPCC report not ready until 2029, this week’s assessment was the last chance for scientists to show how quickly countries need to cut climate pollution.
“The important thing to remember here is how far off track we are. Emissions are still rising,” said Rachel, the Coalition of Scientists’ Climate and Energy Director concerned. Kuritas says:
“We are not done with 2030,” she added. “This will be the job of decades to come.”
That doesn’t mean the next seven years are still irrelevant, experts say. when you need it.
But 2035 shines a spotlight on whether countries are thinking beyond this decade about the deep transformation needed to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of the 20th century.
Kate Larsen, partner at Rhodium Group, said: “We always knew the road to net zero would get steeper over time. It reflects the fact that
“I also know that we’ve always focused on making a lot of progress over the last decade to get to net zero,” she added.
This means starting with the areas where reductions are easiest, such as the power sector. But it also means laying the groundwork for the emissions reductions needed after 2030. These efforts include investing in low-carbon fuels and technologies for hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as heavy industry and aviation. It also means investing in research that helps reduce emissions from agriculture.
“The amount of effort the world will need to put in to reach net zero will continue to increase over time, unless we start making significant emissions cuts in the next few years,” Larsen said.
She said the challenge is to get countries to step up and tackle even more ambitious goals when they are struggling to meet the goals they already have.
Even if temporarily, exceeding the 1.5 C threshold will have severe consequences for many of the world’s most vulnerable people. But the report stresses the need to continue pushing for deep cuts even if the Paris target is breached.
“Meeting the commitments by 2030, 2035 and 2050 will be very difficult. Failure to meet these promises will pose an even greater challenge to humanity,” said Woodwell Center for Climate Research president. One Max Holmes said:
It means finding a balance between competition and cooperation. This could help the world meet its climate goals in a time of growing schism.
Yamide Dagnet, director of climate justice at the Open Society Foundation and former climate negotiator, said: .
“And I think we need a lot of signals to keep them going before the COP, during the COP and of course after. she said.
Reporter Chelsea Harvey contributed.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
