Climate Wire | A pair of new laws combined with new climate regulations gives the United States a chance to meet its 2030 emissions targets under the Paris Agreement. But a lot could go wrong between now and 2030.
These are the conclusions of a report released Thursday by the Rhodium Group that explores America’s path to meeting its goals under the Paris Agreement.
The report shows that last year’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and a bipartisan infrastructure deal for 2021 put the United States in a significantly better position to deliver on its climate ambitions. .
Achieving the goal will require enacting new pollution standards, largely unfinalized by the Biden administration. Allowing conflicts and transmission bottlenecks can derail clean energy projects. Supply chain constraints can drive up prices and delay adoption of renewable energy, electric vehicles and technologies needed for green factories. And if the 2024 presidential election is won by a candidate who doesn’t see climate change as a priority, it could stall implementation of the country’s new climate incentives.
“It’s not as simple as Congress passing legislation at this point,” said Rhodium analyst Ben King, who helped write the report. “This is work being done across the federal government, with multiple agencies making multiple regulations. is.”
The long to-do list is the reason for the wide range of rhodium emissions results.
Under a best-case climate scenario, US emissions will fall 51% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. This meets the 50-52% reduction in emissions required by the Paris Agreement. Achieving that goal, however, will require the effective implementation of new legislation, a set of regulations aimed at curbing pollution from vehicles, power plants and factories and reducing the cost of clean energy. I have.
But if legislation is disrupted and new pollution rules are squashed in court or left on the blueprint of government agencies, emissions reductions could fall by only 32%. In that case, as fossil fuel prices fall, so will energy consumption and emissions.
King said numerous federal rulemakings will be particularly important in determining whether the United States will meet its climate change goals. New EPA regulations on everything from mercury and greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, to vehicle emission standards for vehicles, to methane limits for the oil and gas industry could reduce greenhouse gas levels by 6%. That he discovered Rhodium.
Inflation-control laws and bipartisan infrastructure agreements provide economic incentives to green the economy, but companies don’t have to clean up under these laws. That’s why new federal pollution standards are so important, King said.
“Ambitious federal action in these areas is a prerequisite for meeting Paris’ climate goals,” he said. There are many things that could go wrong, but there are many things that could go well.”
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
