Predicting and understanding disease outbreaks is not just epidemiology. You also need math. For centuries, mathematicians have grappled with problems related to epidemics and pandemics, and potential responses to them. For example, the 18th-century Swiss mathematician Daniel Bernoulli is credited with developing the first mathematical epidemiological model focused on analyzing the effects of smallpox vaccination on life expectancy. Mathematicians have continued this work to this day, including during the COVID pandemic.
One such researcher is Abba Gumel, a mathematician and mathematical biologist at the University of Maryland, College Park. He was recently elected to the current class of Fellows of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Mathematicians like him are essential to our mission to identify and avoid the next pandemic. But to succeed in this quest, we need to unite with experts from other fields and work together to solve these multifaceted problems of disease transmission.
Gummel spoke Scientific American On using mathematics to fight infectious diseases and the problems we hope to solve before the next pandemic hits.
[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]
Tell us about a time when you were surprised by a recent discovery.
we showed in the paper [COVID] Lockdown measures that would have dramatically reduced the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths had we started locking down communities a week or two earlier. This means hitting the disease early and hard before it enters the exponential stage of contagion. [This] It would have dramatically changed the course of the pandemic in the United States and probably saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
What role can mathematicians play in discovering and preventing the next pandemic?
What mathematicians are doing to prevent what happens next is basically addressing the lessons we’ve learned. we have learned. Societies with high mask penetration and the use of high-quality masks have successfully reduced the number of cases and mortality. It is clear that vaccines will work if we increase the level of herd immunity needed. In the next pandemic, given a specific vaccine to begin efficacy, we can predict the minimum rate of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity with the vaccine.
I’m making a bucket list of things to do to hopefully prevent the next damage, but even if I get hit, and even if I get hit, to minimize the next damage [and to] Significant reduction before it becomes a problem. [These are] What it takes to prevent one million Americans from dying in the next terrorist attack.
I cry when I talk about it. [that] None of this would have happened if we had done the right thing. Some people die, but not in millions.
What are the pressing open issues you want to address before the next pandemic hits?
Until a safe and effective vaccine is available, stockpiling high-quality face masks and making them widely available early in a pandemic like the new COVID will save the economy from having to shut down. I am interested in making a decision.
I am interested in determining the effects and potential spillovers of increased global temperatures caused by global warming on wildlife populations and distributions, and on the distribution of associated viral zoonotic diseases. I am interested.
I am also interested in quantifying the burden of potentially highly contagious and highly lethal pandemics of contact-based diseases such as Ebola virus disease. Such a catastrophe was thankfully avoided when the Ebola epidemic was effectively contained in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone over the years.
Prior to the COVID pandemic, our focus was primarily on mosquito-borne diseases. Are there fundamental differences in how vector-mediated infectious diseases such as malaria are studied?
Yeah there is a big difference. There is no direct human-to-human transmission. Mosquitoes become infected by biting an infected person.if i get infected [and] mosquitoes suck blood from me [the] Mosquitoes can catch me too malaria parasite become a parasite and become infected. Therefore, the model types are different.
West Nile fever is transmitted by mosquitoes not only to humans, but also to other hosts such as crows. But birds fly long distances, so we use a spatial model.
What other factors influence modeling decisions?
The type of model you choose depends on the level of data you have. Agent-based models allow each individual to be tracked, including risk of infection, daily behavior, and more. This is very helpful in identifying who has infected whom. But it consumes a lot of data. We need a lot of data at the individual level.
The type of model you choose depends on the problem you want to solve, the type of data you have, and the quality of your data.
What does being selected as an AAAS Fellow mean to you?
I am very honored. This honor belongs to many people in my support network.
This gives you an additional platform to scale your outreach efforts to your community.I have focused on Africa and other developing regions of the world to provide opportunities for people to reach their full potential in his STEM [science, technology, engineering and mathematics]I focus on young people, especially women. I am committed to getting more women in rural areas to join her STEM and become the best women. I am very concerned about the gender gap. We are doing everything we can to fill that gap. Especially in Africa, where I am from, we need more women in STEM fields.
We have a big responsibility. We need to make science accessible to everyone in the world. It doesn’t work at all when only a few countries are scientifically advanced. Look what happened. COVID started in China, but it has become a problem for everyone. We are all vulnerable to what is happening far away. This is the same as injustice in STEM, injustice in healthcare, and injustice in the economy. If we are doing well and our neighbors are not, it is only a matter of time before we suffer too. [It’s] It’s the same thing with viral things happening far away.because you should be careful [it’s] Get on the plane and come to us.
