India is in the midst of the biggest climate experiment the world has ever experienced.
This is a test aimed at transforming a country characterized by deep economic inequalities and heavily polluting coal-fired power into one where families drive electric scooters and use solar energy to cool their homes. It can also determine whether global temperatures exceed limits beyond which the climate impacts become increasingly catastrophic.
Experts say this is a challenge that no other country has faced in exactly the same way. With a population of 1.4 billion, the country’s continued dependence on fossil fuels could undermine global climate goals. India faces the greatest danger. These same goals, set largely by developed countries that have benefited from free energy development, could also limit the growth India hopes will boost its economic prosperity.
“[India] Uruka Kelkar, Climate Program Director, World Resources Institute (WRI), India, said:
“As a low-middle-income country, most of the economic development and meeting various needs such as housing, water, energy, mobility and nutrition are still ahead of us,” she added. I was. “To date, no country has met these targets without using fossil fuels and emitting greenhouse gases.”
The South Asian country is now the world’s third largest emitter of global warming pollution after China and the United States, and its energy demand is expected to grow faster than any other country in the next 20 years.
According to the International Energy Agency, by 2040 we will need an additional electricity system on par with the European Union.
And because of its scale, “if that new energy comes from fossil fuels, it will have severe climate impacts,” says Sandeep Pai, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). increase.
That means India cannot follow the same path as countries like China and the US that modernized their economies and wiped them out.
We need to keep emissions under control while we work to lift millions out of poverty and build cities and industries. This is an activity that is particularly difficult to achieve emissions reductions.
“India is like the first example of a leap that a developing country has to take not only in its low-carbon energy system, but also in its development model,” said Thomas, IEA analyst and power sector model. Spencer says.
Analysts say this is a challenge that requires funding and support from the developed countries that contribute most to the problem.
Samir Saran, head of India’s Observer Research Foundation, said last October ahead of the COP 27 climate negotiations in Egypt that India would “pay for Europe’s and America’s future, just like they pay for their past.” You cannot expect to pay for
find a middle ground
India is a relatively new country for the major emitting clubs. Its emissions have increased rapidly over the past two decades, along with rapid economic growth.
Still, India produces about 1.9 tonnes of carbon per person. That’s about one-eighth of her 14.7 tons produced by the average American. The country’s gross domestic product per capita is also well below the developed world and emerging neighbors such as China.
Indian politicians like to highlight that imbalance as an example of why India should pursue its own development path. It is the path that is entitled to its fair share of the global carbon budget and not held accountable in the emissions century that is wreaking havoc on our climate today. .
“What India is trying to do is find a middle ground to tackle climate change without hurting economic growth,” CSIS’ Pai said.
These goals can sometimes seem contradictory.
At the 2021 World Climate Conference, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India will aim to reach zero emissions by 2070. Coal (climate wireNovember 16, 2021).
The coal-dependent country has set ambitious targets for renewable energy development. That’s 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, or about half the electricity, by 2030.
But India’s leaders have made it clear that coal will remain part of the energy mix in the future, partly because it supports so many jobs.
India’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Bhupender Yadav, said at the closing ceremony of climate talks last year, “For most developing countries, a just transition cannot be equated with low-carbon development, not decarbonization. “Developing countries need independence in choosing their energy mix and achieving their goals. [development goals]”
Despite that rhetoric, India has started its transition to the environment, says WRI’s Kelkar.
It has launched partnerships like the International Solar Alliance aimed at building solar power in developing countries. Recently, it announced a national plan to promote green hydrogen and amended the National Energy Law to accelerate the decarbonization of the industrial sector. It was also one of only 20 countries to update its climate goals last year to include an overall reduction in emissions intensity and a commitment to more sustainable lifestyles.
A recent IEA analysis found that if all countries adopted the kinds of measures recommended in that initiative, global carbon emissions could fall by more than 2 billion tonnes by 2030. Net zero. We are on track to reach our goal. Studies show that it could also reduce inequality in energy consumption between countries.
As the G20 presidency this year, India will focus on climate finance and energy security. Incorporating approaches to energy consumption into the debate could also help shape the debate on the energy transition, according to the IEA’s analysis.
The IEA’s Spencer said the benefits of moving to a clean economy have become more apparent as the price of green technology has fallen. India’s share of total emissions will rise to just over 10% by 2050, he said, largely due to the growth of renewable energy in the power sector and more climate-friendly policies. rice field.
“There are a lot of actions going on on the ground and indeed it has led to policy in India and not all of it has been reported at the international level, and it is clear that India needs energy to grow. It could coexist with a blanket statement,” Kelker said.
Modeling by WRI and Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC predicts that the power sector will become cleaner and emissions will level off in the coming decades.
It does not mean that no further action is required.
India has seen a significant increase in clean energy spending in recent years. But according to the IEA, meeting climate goals will require $150 billion annually by 2030, about three times what it is today. And many of those actions will only be possible with international support.
Plenty of challenges
India’s growth is on the upswing, so the current energy system cannot simply be replaced with renewables, analysts say. We need to increase that generation. This is in contrast to developed countries, where energy demand is largely flat or declining.
While the majority of new power generation can come from renewable sources, India will continue to rely on coal to fuel its existing system. Many of them are state-owned and are still recovering their investment. That makes phasing out these coal plants much more difficult than in countries already nearing retirement, says CSIS expert Pai.
India has the largest planned coal expansion outside of China, with over 30 GW of new coal capacity currently under construction, according to climate think tank E3G. And Modi recently announced that it would expand its use of oil and natural gas.
Russia’s war in Ukraine and its effect on rising energy prices has not helped.
Rising gas prices have made it difficult for India to increase shipments of liquefied natural gas. In return, India imported more oil from Russia and used more coal.
Last summer’s extreme heat added to the challenge. To keep people calm, India also turned to coal (climate wireJune 2, 2022).
“It is this reality that I think so many policymakers in India already have energy security sentiment through all channels, and it strengthens their resolve,” Pai said. rice field.
India’s dependence on coal was a key factor behind the 11-hour shift in the 2021 climate negotiations to phase out rather than phase out coal. And at his COP 27 last year, Indian negotiators pushed for phasing out all fossil fuels.
The move was India’s way of saying less coal at a time when developed countries were ready to phase out their main sources of electricity, gas and oil, Pai said.
Egypt, a growing gas producer, blocked the move, but it could become a hot topic again in climate talks in the United Arab Emirates.
In the absence of a coal phase-out, one of the best things India can do is to phase out by not building new coal plants and starting to shut down old, inefficient coal plants. It’s about getting started, says Pai. This is consistent with his IEA assessment that if the world keeps temperature rise at the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, no new coal-fired power plants can be built.
burn the way forward
Actions to combat climate change are taking place in several Indian states.
Tamil Nadu, one of the most industrialized states in the country, is trying to come up with green alternatives. So does Bihar, which is trying to improve its standard of living in a way that does not repeat the damage of the past. Several states have also said they will ban new coal plants.
“India is not a single homogenous country [place] Everyone agrees and everyone follows the same policy,” said WRI’s Kelkar. “But in reality, many states are ahead.”
India is discussing the Just Energy Transition Partnership, an initiative by the G7 and other wealthy nations to help emerging economies transition from coal to renewable energy. But in a country where states wield a great deal of power, that may be difficult to achieve, experts say. And India is unlikely to agree to an agreement to force a coal phase-out.
India has good reason not to let climate change wreak more havoc. She is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, with much of the population still living in a precarious environment. If we can expand our economies and keep our emissions low, it could pave the way for other countries.
Camilla Fenning, who leads the fossil fuel transition team at E3G, said: “In terms of India’s size and scale it’s not all about drumming to be faster or faster, but India is doing a lot and helping others through organizations like the International Solar Alliance. It’s also about recognizing that you can.”
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
