The auto industry is pessimistic about 2030-2040 EV adoption timelines

Man working on battery pack for BMW electric car in factory
Expanding / A BMW employee assembles an iX battery pack at the BMW plant in Dingolfing, Germany.

BMW

According to the White House climate goals, half of all new cars and light trucks sold in the US in 2030 should be zero-emission vehicles. California has set 2035 as the deadline for banning new gasoline or diesel vehicles within its borders. In parts of Europe he looks like 2040 is obsolete for new fossil fuel cars. Not to mention a very ambitious date for 2030 in the UK. And automakers on every continent are preparing their entire electric vehicle lineups for the phase-out of the internal combustion engine. engine product line.

However, a survey of the automotive industry conducted by ABB Robotics and Automotive Manufacturing Solutions casts pessimism on whether these goals are achievable. When asked, “Is it realistic to move to 100% electric vehicle production to meet various regional targets for 2030-2040?” he said, “Yes, definitely.” was only 11%. Fewer than 10% of his European respondents believed the target was realistic, compared with 12% in North America and 17% in Asia.

Another 28% said, “Yes, but it won’t be easy.” That is why more than half of the survey respondents believe that between 2030 and 2040, he believes it is too early to go fully electric. 41% said it could be, but it won’t happen by the target date, and only 18% said they would never see the end of the internal combustion engine.

Those working for Tier 2 auto suppliers were the most optimistic. In contrast, only one-third of her respondents in the other group thought this was possible. (OEMs, Design and Engineering Services, Tier 1 Suppliers, Tier 3 Suppliers, Software and IT Services, and Logistics were among other industries consulted for the study.)

Not surprisingly, the biggest obstacles to moving to 100% EV production were the supply chain and cost. Adapting to a new battery supply chain was the top response at 19%. This effect has already been confirmed. See how Toyota’s meager battery supply severely limits EV development. It also contrasts with how Ford secured enough battery contracts to triple his. In 2023 Mustang he will produce Mach E and F-150 Lightning twice as much as him.

Some complaints reflect consumer dissatisfaction. Construction of a new EV production facility (16%), which requires significant capital investment as a new EV is significantly more expensive than a similarly sized and equipped gasoline burner, is the second most commonly cited move. was a barrier to To 100% EV production.

Other concerns include shortages of raw material supplies (or shortages thereof) and infrastructure, followed by grid capacity shortages, green energy shortages, and EV charging infrastructure shortages. Doubts over desirability, lack of demand and the high cost of purchasing new EVs were also cited as reasons for pessimism.

Industry respondents were also asked what they see as the biggest single obstacle to EV adoption. Lack of charging infrastructure topped his list at 26%. However, 17% cite the high cost of new EVs. Interestingly, consumer resistance to EVs was predicted to be a bigger factor than cost among the North American and European or Asian study participants.

The good news is that 80% of those surveyed thought it was possible to achieve sustainable car manufacturing, with 51% saying “yes, but it won’t be easy” and another 29% I replied that it is possible. Difficult. “

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