IPCC climate change report: Can we avoid 1.5°C of global warming?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global group of climate scientists, today released its latest report. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, he warns, will be impossible without immediate and large-scale emissions cuts.

“If we don’t act at the speed we need, we’re going to be over 1.5 degrees, maybe even 2 degrees,” says Peter Thorne of Ireland’s Maynooth University, one of the authors of the report. “Really, it’s a call for arms.”

Thorne says the world is likely to reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures in the first half of the next decade, regardless of what happens to emissions, but we are What you are doing decides whether to stabilize around that threshold or break through it. .

Does this mean the world is about to cross the 1.5°C limit?

Not necessarily, according to the report’s authors. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London says we already have all the technology needed to reduce emissions. “It’s clear what needs to be done and we can do it,” she says.

But the scale of action now required, if still technically possible, is becoming increasingly socially and politically infeasible. Even if he cuts emissions to half of 1990 levels by 2030, he has only a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C of the target, says another UK author. Chris Jones of the Bureau of Meteorology said.

“Today’s report reveals the magnitude of ambition needed to avoid the worst consequences of climate change,” says Jones. “Current policy is off track.”

Can the world cool down again if the temperature rises above 1.5 degrees Celsius?

In theory, even if the world were to exceed 1.5°C in the next few decades, removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could cool the planet down to 1.5°C by 2100. We don’t have that technology yet.

“It is currently not believed possible to capture the amount of carbon dioxide required to achieve this from the atmosphere,” Camila Matheson of the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

That’s bad…

That’s right. Warming to date has led to ever more extreme events, such as last year’s record heatwave, causing widespread damage and loss. The IPCC report warns that the impacts will continue to get worse with every little bit of warming. Even if we remove enough CO2 to cool the planet later this century, some of the consequences may be irreversible.

“This composite shows how much 1.1 degrees can change. [of warming] So far, it has had a negative impact on human and natural systems. So you’re killing people and destroying lives,” says Otto.

The report also shows climate change inequalities, she says. “Those who cause problems are not the ones who suffer the consequences.”

Wait a minute, what is the IPCC?

The IPCC was established by the United Nations in 1988 to examine the science of climate change and how to limit it. Six reports have been made since then, and this is his sixth and final part. We already have a 6th round report on basic science, the potential impacts of climate change and what we need to do about it, as well as ocean, land and 1.5°C received three special reports on global warming. Today’s Comprehensive Report brings together these six reports.

Does the IPCC do its own research?

All IPCC reports are based on previously published scientific research. But some of these studies were done specifically for the IPCC, and the scientists writing the reports asked questions such as how much warming would occur for a given level of emissions. We provide a consensus estimate for If anything, these estimates tend to be fairly conservative. For example, early IPCC reports were criticized for underestimating future sea level rise. There is also political debate over how strong the final wording is.

Political strife? Did you expect the scientist to write his IPCC report?

Yes, hundreds of scientists work unpaid, reviewing thousands of published studies and writing reports. But when it comes to the summary for policymakers, which is the only part most journalists and commentators read, the wording of every sentence is discussed by representatives of UN member states. attempts to be conservative in its wording.

topic: