Electric vehicles are rapidly taking off – but is that a good thing?

Over the past five years, the revolution has accelerated in the transportation sector. Electric cars, once the sole possession of the wealthy, have gone mainstream.

According to the latest figures released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on April 26, nearly one-fifth of new cars sold worldwide this year will be either full-battery electric or plug-in hybrid models. Become. He is expected to sell 14 million units this year, up from around 1 million in 2017.

This explosive growth is a testament to industry innovation and government intervention. Declining battery costs are increasing vehicle range and increasing consumer appeal. Meanwhile, government policies, such as bans on the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles in some countries, are encouraging people to embrace zero-emission driving.

The result will be a transformation of the automotive industry that will reshape the world’s energy use. The IEA predicts that global oil demand for road transport will peak in 2025. “The internal combustion engine has been unrivaled for him for more than a century, but electric vehicles are changing the status quo,” IEA’s Fatih Birol said in a statement.

But while the electrification of vehicles around the world offers climate change benefits, it is also cause for concern. SUVs have grown in popularity in recent years, accounting for 42% of all car sales in 2020. In parallel, electric SUVs are also gaining momentum, accounting for around 35% of electric passenger car sales in 2022.

Oxford University’s Christian Brand calls this trend toward larger vehicles the ‘mobility’ craze. Electric SUVs are more environmentally friendly than petrol and diesel vehicles, but their size and weight negate some of the climate change impact of the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). Their larger batteries also require more raw minerals such as cobalt and lithium, putting further pressure on an already stretched global supply. “The trend towards larger vehicles is totally undesirable,” Brand says.

He suggests new policies may be needed to encourage people to opt for smaller EVs, such as higher taxes on electric SUVs. “Of course, it is unpopular because policymakers fear losing votes. he says.

I am also worried about air pollution. In impoverished countries like India, electric scooters and tuk-tuks are replacing diesel vehicles, the IEA reports, which will lead to significant improvements in air quality in cities. But in wealthy countries, where petrol and diesel cars tend to be cleaner, the picture is less clear, says Frank Kelly of Imperial College London.

“From an emissions standpoint, the benefits of going electric are actually pretty small,” Kelly says. Also, electric vehicles still cause pollution from tires, brakes and road wear, so air pollution won’t go away completely. “We’re still going to have a pretty big problem in our city,” Kelly says.

So governments must do more to reduce their dependence on cars, especially in urban areas, Kelly says. “Clean public transport is the solution to urban air pollution problems,” he says. “In fact, we should minimize all private vehicles as much as possible, and not celebrate the increase in numbers.”