Fears are that the sudden spread of Covid through new populations with relatively little previous exposure to the virus will lead to the emergence of new “supervariants.” This is something that, like Alpha and Delta, could change the face of the pandemic. , and the Omicron form of the virus have previously done. However, it is not clear whether there is a significant risk of this happening.
In 2020, Ravi Gupta, Professor of Clinical Microbiology at the University of Cambridge, published a paper in the journal. Nature Chronic SARS-CoV-2 infection (where the virus remains and multiplies in the bodies of people with compromised immune systems) presents a greater opportunity for the virus to evolve. These new infections mean more opportunities for chronic infections,” Gupta said. “You’re increasing the number of games in the virus’ favor and creating potentially problematic new variants.”
However, Cowling argues that immunity levels are much lower in China than in other parts of the world, making it relatively easy for the virus to spread through the population without needing to evolve. If a supervariant emerges, it says more people will likely come from North America or Europe, where they have built immunity through both vaccination and previous infections.
“My gut feeling is that the risk of a major new variant is probably not high in China,” says Gupta. “In the UK, for example, if Covid continues to spread, we will have to find new directions and ways to avoid immunity from previous waves of Omicron and all its subspecies, whereas in China we are happy to spread anyway. .”
Even if a new supervariant appears, scientists aren’t sure if it will be more or less toxic than what already exists. showed that Omicron is less lethal than previous versions because it does not infect “Instead, it infects the cells in your nose,” he says. “Omicron chose a route that exists in the upper respiratory tract, so it is less severe and very well transmitted.”
But Gupta cautioned that this doesn’t necessarily mean that the virus’s overall trajectory has shifted in a less severe direction, and that the emergence of more virulent immune-evading versions could be biological. “There is no evolutionary reason why viruses cannot revert to full virulence,” he says.
In any case, it may be some time before the full consequences of the coronavirus outbreak in China are known. Some global consortia, such as Germany’s GISAID, are still dedicated to tracking coronavirus mutations, but in general, countries around the world have scaled back their efforts to sequence virus samples, and are seeking new variants. “People are aware of how much it costs, and it’s not just in the UK and the US, but around the world.” It’s happening inside,” says Gupta. “So it’s probably the most vulnerable right now, in a relative sense, just because you don’t know what’s out there.”
Baloo explains that in much of Europe and North America, Covid now rivals many other common respiratory infections, but that could change if a dangerous new supervariant emerges. There is a possibility. Alarming surges in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in 2020 and his 2021 have given way to steady, more insidious death tolls.
Between January and November 2022, 41,620 people died from Covid in England. Although there are no exact data, most are thought to be elderly people who are already frail and have multiple underlying medical conditions, or people whose immune systems have been suppressed due to illness or medications they are taking. By comparison, flu tends to kill around 30,000 people during particularly severe seasons.
“Today, very few healthy young people die from Covid in the UK or US,” says Balloux. “What Covid is doing at the moment is essentially adding to the stress of other problems – people who already have underlying problems and the fact that in the UK the hospital system cannot cope. For now at least, the Covid surge in China does little to change this existing threat posed by the virus.
