Exxon scientists in the 1970s accurately predicted climate change

Exxon scientists knew the harm of burning fossil fuels, but company executives downplayed the risks, according to an analysis of internal climate projections.

To madeleine cuff

Scientists at Exxon accurately predicted the pace and magnitude of climate change more than 40 years ago. It emphasizes the allegation that he knew about and tried to downplay it.

Scientists who worked at Exxon between 1977 and 2003 accurately predicted the rate at which average global temperatures would rise as a result of carbon emissions, and predicted that human-induced global warming would begin for the first time by about 2000. They accurately predicted it would be detectable and reasonably estimated how much carbon dioxide it would bring. To dangerous warming, according to studies.

Leaked internal documents published in 2015 show that Exxon, which became ExxonMobil in 1999, was aware of climate change in the 1970s and the threat would cause “dramatic environmental impacts by 2050.” This suggests that he was aware of the possibility.

But this is the first time Exxon’s quantitative climate predictions have been evaluated. Geoffrey Supran of Harvard University and his colleagues analyzed all publicly available internal documents and research publications published by the company between 1977 and 2014 to compare modern models with subsequent real-world temperatures. We evaluated the accuracy of exon scientific predictions for both changes.

The results were consistent with scientific thinking at the time of writing, the team found.

“Most of Exxon’s predictions accurately predict warming, consistent with subsequent observations, but at least as well as independent models,” says Supran. “Good scientists modeled and predicted global warming with astonishing skill and accuracy, but companies spent the next few decades denying that very climate science.”

ExxonMobil is one of many oil companies facing lawsuits in the United States for trying to hide from the public the true impact of its use of fossil fuels.

For decades, Exxon management has publicly argued that the science of climate change is still uncertain: In 2000, former CEO Lee Raymond called for a “drastic change” to reduce emissions. The company has also been criticized for funding groups that spread misleading information about climate change.

Sprang says Exxon has taken a “two-handed” approach to the climate change issue. “In private and academic circles, they have quietly contributed to climate science,” he says. “But at the same time, and subsequently, they contributed loudly to fostering skepticism about that very science.”

Following the findings, an ExxonMobil spokesperson denied accusations of trying to cover up the science of climate change, saying the company was “committed to being part of the solution to climate change and the risks it poses. I am doing,” he said.

“Anyone who says ‘I knew’ is wrong,” he said in a statement. “Several seek to misrepresent ExxonMobil’s position on facts and climate science, support for effective policy solutions, and reframe deliberate internal policy arguments as corporate disinformation campaign attempts. ”

The spokesperson added:

Sign up for our free Fix the Planet newsletter to get climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox every Thursday