An emaciated cow in the arid region of Kenya bordering Ethiopia
Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images
The Horn of Africa could experience the worst drought on record as dry weather is forecast for this year’s March-May rainy season. This would be his sixth consecutive wet season failure since the end of 2020 in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Severe drought, combined with conflict and ongoing economic pressures, have displaced more than one million people, putting them at risk of hunger. Over 20 million people.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), below-average rainfall over the next three months could spell the region’s worst drought in at least 70 years.
The drought has pushed the region to the brink of famine, killing crops and millions of livestock. If temperatures continue above normal in May, crops will die, more vegetation will die, and livestock will have less forage, according to WMO projections.
“The drought continuum is truly devastating to livelihoods,” said James Burdin of the United States Agency for International Development.
Humanitarian aid has so far averted famine for millions of people, but the crisis is far from over, according to a statement from the Famine Early Warning System Network on the situation in Somalia. are in urgent need of food aid.
The drought is caused by three years of below-average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and a rare triple La Niña in the tropical Pacific. Climate change is also contributing to warmer temperatures and long-term drier trends in the region, says William Roberts of the University of Northumbria, UK.
Some preliminary models indicate that by the end of 2023, a reversed El Niño pattern could emerge in the Pacific, bringing wet weather to the region. “Traditionally, when El Niño occurs, East Africa sees above-average precipitation,” he says, WMO’s Robert Stefanski. However, heavy rain can bring its own problems, such as flooding and disease.
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