What happens in the next few months really matters. Abundant rainfall could ease the situation and avoid the worst-case scenario. But Europe needs more. Hannah Croke of the University of Reading, UK, said, “We are talking about the ocean, the ocean’s worth of water. In terms of volume, hundreds of millions of cubic liters of rain must fall across the continent to make up the deficit.” Certain other locations, including parts of France and Britain, will need more rainfall than average, which is unfortunately not likely.
The Met Office, the UK’s Meteorological Agency, estimates that March, April and May have a 10% chance of being wetter than average. Conversely, there is a 30% chance that this time of year will be drier than average, which is 1.5 times more likely than usual for this time of year. The Japan Meteorological Agency stresses that this is a “rough outlook” and that there may still be patches of very wet weather, even if it remains generally dry.
The rain that falls has to fall in the right place in the right way. “If you can figure it all out in two days, there’s always the potential for very severe flooding,” he said. “What we’re hoping for is sustained, reasonably mild rains over the next few months.”
Another important factor is how hot this summer will be, says Camarelli. Heat waves boost water consumption and increase evaporation rates. He notes that forecasts for Europe don’t suggest temperatures will be as scorching as they were last year, but there’s also uncertainty there.
The potential for drought this year cannot be ignored, to say the least, so experts who spoke to WIRED advised to prepare now to avoid the worst effects of a dry summer. Reducing water usage is an obvious but important step. France is not the only country with consumption restrictions in place. In the UK, a hosepipe ban, introduced last summer, has persisted all winter long in southwest Cornwall county and parts of neighboring Devon.
Catalonia, in northeastern Spain, has just introduced new water restrictions. Farms should reduce their consumption by 40% and industry by 15%. It is no longer allowed to clean roads with drinking water. In Switzerland, some municipalities distribute leaflets urging residents not to waste water. “You have to prepare for the worst,” says Kumar.
In recent years, various countries, including Switzerland, have tried to protect water sources by covering glaciers and mountain snow with giant sheets that reflect the sun. While this is effective in small areas, it may not be a sustainable option when it comes to ensuring water resources for millions of people, says Manuela Brunner of ETH Zurich and Davos, Switzerland. One Avalanche Institute suggests.
In the medium to long term, Brunner argues that he is witnessing a change in attitudes about drought in Europe, with Switzerland, for example, trying to set up a national system for drought detection and notification. is kind of a big step from not talking about drought warnings to having a nationwide drought warning platform,” she said.
Countries also have to deal with leaky plumbing. About a quarter of Europe’s drinking water is lost this way. You may soon be drinking more recycled wastewater. Researchers in Barcelona recently evaluated the safety of wastewater normally discharged into the sea. A paper published this month explains that when chemically treated and diluted, water appears safe for human consumption. It suggests that it could help provide water for Barcelona.
Camarelli says big changes are inevitable. And while man-made climate change isn’t the only cause of Europe’s ongoing drought, natural fluctuations in water levels are also at play, but each summer brings hotter temperatures and worsens the situation. Brunner’s advice on this point can be summed up in just three words: “Stop climate change.”
