Softening demand for PCs and smartphones combined with a glut of NAND memory bits has led to a sharp decline in 3D NAND memory prices in recent quarters. According to recent data from TrendForce, his NAND flash revenue worldwide in the fourth quarter registered a staggering 45% year-on-year decline and a staggering 25% quarter-on-quarter decline. And while that plunge appears to have leveled off to some extent (TrendForces analysts predict NAND prices will fall even more slowly in the first quarter), the cost per bit of NAND has fallen to to its lowest level ever. All of this means that his SSD prices for end users are dropping significantly as the core cost of building SSDs continues to drop.
NAND memory makers earned $10,287 million in Q4 2022, down 25% sequentially and down 45% year-over-year. The Average Selling Price (ASP) of NAND memory continued to drop 22.8% as flash makers tried to ditch the memory devices they produced. Meanwhile, PC, smartphone, and server vendors were hesitant to buy more 3D NAND than they absolutely needed, due to uncertainty about future demand and fear of overstocking.
Samsung Remains Top of the NAND Market
samsung NAND sales remained at the top with $3.48 billion (down 19.1% QoQ and down 43% YoY) with a market share of 33.8%. Despite the decline in ASP, Samsung has managed to increase total bit shipments by leveraging its cost advantage and focusing on high-density products. Additionally, the company has so far not announced any plans to reduce its 3D NAND bit production, unlike all of its peers, including South Korea-based SK Group.
Kioxia 3D NAND earned $1.968 billion (down 30.5% QoQ and 44.5% YoY), accounting for 19.1% of the market. Kioxia sells both raw NAND memory and data center SSDs, so weak demand from PC and smartphone customers and inventory destocking by server makers have caused the company’s revenue to soar.
Sales of NAND SK Group (which owns SK Hynix and controls Solidigm) reached $1,755.7 million in the fourth quarter (down 30.9% QoQ, down 51.4% YoY), with the company holding a 17.1% share of Flash It was the third largest supplier of memory. SK Group’s NAND revenue declined, but SK Group’s shipments of 3D NAND for consumer electronics and sales of enterprise SSDs increased, driving flash memory bit shipments up 6.7% quarter-on-quarter, according to TrendForce. rice field.
western digitalIt accounted for 16.1% of NAND sales in Q4 . However, these slight declines in revenue were the result of a significant 20% increase in bit shipments, which was clearly the company’s fourth quarter This is due to the influence of ASP.
micron NAND Flash sales totaled $1.13 billion in Q4 2022, down 34.7% QoQ and down 41.3% YoY, representing 10.7% of the market. Micron was the first company to announce plans to cut production of his 3D NAND bits late last year. Nevertheless, according to TrendForce, Micron will begin shipping client SSDs based on his 232-layer 3D NAND in Q4 2022. Additionally, as Micron ramps up production of enterprise-grade drives powered by his 176-layer 3D QLC NAND, TrendForce expects Micron’s bit shipments to gradually improve in his 2023, with steady quarterly earnings. expected to increase to
SSD prices reach new lows
Samsung not only controls a third of the NAND flash memory market, but also sells some of the industry’s most popular SSDs. Seven out of the ten best-selling SSDs on Amazon carry the Samsung badge. On the other hand, general SSD retail prices from all vendors generally followed the trend set by the price of 3D NAND Flash. To get a better idea of how his SSD prices have changed over the past few months, I grabbed some data from Amazon tracker CamelCamelCamel to see how prices have changed since the start of Q4 2022.
- Samsung’s mainstream 970 Evo Plus SSD 2 TB price dropped from $210 in October to $160 in December 2022. This product is currently available for $130 with a 38% discount.
- Samsung’s 870 Evo 1TB drive went from $105 in October to $90 in December. Its price dropped significantly in the first quarter and now he’s down 28% to sell for $65.
- Interestingly, Micron’s Crucial MX500 1TB SSD pricing was slightly different in Q4. drive he was $85 in september, briefly in october he dropped to $75, in november he was back to $85, in december he dropped to about $75 . At press time, the product was priced at $60, a 29% discount.
- Western Digital’s high-end WD_Black SN770 1 TB SSD wasn’t much of a downward trend in Q4. It sold for the entire quarter at $100, but fell to $80 within a few days. However, the drive is now available for $60, a 40% discount.
- Another popular high-end PCIe Gen4 x4 SSD, the Samsung 980 Pro 2TB prices were very volatile in Q4, from $240 in September to $180 in December. This drive is currently available for $160. That’s up from $160 earlier this month and down 33% overall.
- Meanwhile, SK hynix’s P31 2TB, a PCIe Gen3 SSD popular with laptop users, has had its ups and downs as SK hynix tends to sell drives for short periods. , before falling to $120, a 25% drop in price over the past few weeks.
- Also, SK hynix’s latest PCIe Gen4 SSD, the P41 2TB, has a more stable price. Drives that used to cost $260 are now selling for $245, a 6% drop. The sale price is much lower at $170.
NAND price drops further
TrendForce believes that NAND Flash revenue and ASP declined further in Q1 2022 due to traditionally low demand for the period. As announced, Kioxia, Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix are expected to continue reducing production in the first quarter to deal with the overstock situation. Their newest production node. However, according to TrendForce, QoQ could decrease by 10% to 15% in ASP in the first quarter due to lower production volumes.
As a result, TrendForce forecasts an 8.1% decline in NAND Flash revenue in Q1 2023. Meanwhile, on Amazon, he briefly checks SSD retail prices and finds that SSD prices are dropping, and his NAND prices are now favorable to buyers of his PC parts.
Source: TrendForce, Amazon, CamelCamelCamel
