Roscosmos is also considering dropping the Soyuz currently docked to the ISS ahead of schedule and replacing it with yet another Soyuz, according to a Russian newspaper. may be a sign of
For nine years since the last space shuttle flight, NASA has relied on Russia to carry astronauts to the ISS. The Soyuz provided the only vehicle into space. But in 2020, NASA began using the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft. Soon, Boeing will also start offering vehicles. NASA still relies on Russia for some cargo transport and a small number of astronaut flights, but that could change soon, McClintock says. “I think it’s likely that NASA will conduct a similar analysis to see if they can sustain resupply and astronaut movement to the space station without relying on the Russians. And that would be prudent.” .
NASA may already be moving in that direction. On March 2, the agency extended his cargo contracts with SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Sierra Space. This development will further exacerbate Russia’s economic woes by slashing its already limited space revenues. Roscosmos does not have a commercial space program to support or rely on.
Russia has long relied on the Baikonur spaceport in neighboring Kazakhstan for manned launches. But the country charges hefty annual fees, and in March Kazakhstan seized assets at a Russian spaceport. Russia sought to reduce its dependence on Baikonur by building a new spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, in eastern Russia near the Chinese border, but the project was bogged down by construction problems, delays and corruption scandals.
Besides launch issues and coolant leaks, Russia’s civilian space program faces another problem: the ISS. For the past quarter century, the station has provided an important link between the U.S. and Russian space programs, but that link is fading with plans to phase out the massive structure altogether. NASA is investing in its next-generation commercial space station, and the module is expected to enter orbit in 2030. Russia has no role in these commercial concepts, nor in her new Tiangong station in China.
Last July, Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov argued that Russia would withdraw from the ISS in 2028, when it launches its own space station, effectively ending the station’s lifespan. And in February this year, the state-run TASS news agency confirmed that Russia plans to support the ISS until her 2028.
Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank focused on China, Russia and Eurasia, is skeptical. He doesn’t know that new space station models, manned spacecraft, and launch vehicles are on the way. He added that he is optimistic that Russia will even open new stations in his 2030s. “Russia is not the Soviet Union,” says Luzin, who is also a visiting fellow at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “Russia will be able to build some heavy vehicles and Soyuz spacecraft. Russia can launch some satellites. But that won’t be advanced space power. We will not advance beyond.”
