A UMD-led study tracks the outbreak and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), depleting wild birds, affecting domestic poultry and increasing egg prices.
A highly pathogenic avian flu is raging in the United States, making headlines as egg prices skyrocket early in the year and fears of the next zoonotic pandemic creeping into popular media. A team of researchers led by the University of Maryland (UMD) has tracked the arrival and progression of deadly bird flu (H5N1) in North America to determine how this outbreak differs from previous ones.
The team found that the deadly impact on wild birds and the shift from seasonal to year-round transmission represent a dangerous shift in bird flu in the United States. A disease that spreads across jurisdictions and disciplines. The team also suggests that H5N1 is likely to cause epidemics and pose risks to food security and the economy.
This paper was published in the journal on April 19, 2023. conservation biology.
“The poultry industry has been dealing with low-pathogenic avian influenza for decades, but this is not the case.” says there is. Low pathogenic diseases are less contagious and easier to contain than high pathogenic diseases.
“This highly pathogenic virus is wiping out everything in numbers never seen before,” Marinax said. “This paper shows how unprecedented it is and explains what we are thinking. is really a call to arms.Federal agencies, state agencies, the agricultural sector, and wildlife management must all work together to address it, because it cannot be otherwise.”
The team concludes that five different data sets provide information on the incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild and poultry birds with a focus on the United States and Canada, as well as a global database from 2014 to early 2023. Based on analysis of sources.
The data show that highly pathogenic H5N1 spread from Eurasia to the United States and was first documented in late 2021. By October 2022, the disease had reported mass deaths of his 31 wild birds, with an estimated 33,504 wild birds detected. in the US and Canada. In addition, over 58 million poultry in the United States and over 7 million in Canada were either infected or had to be culled to limit the spread of the disease.
In 2015, an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N8 in the United States resulted in culling of 50 million poultry. However, the disease was eradicated in North America the same year. This is mainly because it does not seriously affect wild birds and is relatively easy to contain through poultry culling. But H5N1 brings new challenges.
“Unlike H5N8, this disease has a large impact on wild birds,” said Johanna Harvey, a postdoctoral researcher at UMD and lead author of the study. “While it is difficult to estimate how many birds are actually affected across wild populations, we have seen dramatic disease effects in raptors, seabirds and colonial nesting birds. And this is the worst-case scenario, as bird flu currently causes the highest poultry losses.”
The data also reveal a shift from seasonal to year-round disease. Previous outbreaks of avian influenza, whether the low pathogenicity virus circulating in the United States or the highly pathogenic H5N8 virus of 2015, typically occurred in the fall. A full year to recover the loss. However, this new virus appears to persist year-round, with disease detected in wild birds in summer and outbreaks in poultry in both spring and autumn.
Declaring a disease endemic is a complex process, but the authors of the study said it likely follows a pattern seen in Europe, where highly pathogenic avian influenza is not eradicable and is already treated as endemic. suggests that
The research team recommends a management approach based on a method called Structured Decision-Making. It follows a specific process of identifying and bringing together relevant individuals who have interest, expertise, or interest in an issue, distinguishes between known and unknown factors, and establishes what can be measured. Goals and actions with quantifiable results. This process is a lot like dealing with a human pandemic.
“Good decision science is what you do when you don’t know what’s going to happen next,” said Marinax, who teaches decision science. “Since this is a new virus for birds in North America, no one knows if the immune system will adapt, how long it will take, or how. Vaccines How do you track in wild birds Test water or soil What are the different behavioral triggers and if they are successful? How do we measure it? These decisions have to be made at multiple scales.”
This paper outlines examples of potential triggers for action, identifies the relevant decision makers needed to coordinate responses, and some of the challenges that may arise. The researchers hope their study will bring key players to the table for considering next steps.
Original: Why this bird flu is different: Scientists say new bird flu calls for urgent coordinated response
Than: University of Maryland
