This winter, devastating floods and landslides hit California, killing at least 17 people, closing roads for days and displacing thousands. Five years after a 2018 landslide killed 23 people and destroyed more than 100 homes, mud and water flooded the hillside town of Montecito.
According to the World Health Organization, between 1998 and 2017, landslides and landslides affected nearly five million people worldwide, claiming more than 18,000 lives. By contrast, wildfires and volcanic activity killed him at 2,400. In the United States alone, 25 to 50 people die each year from landslides and other debris flows. But in general, we don’t hear much about dangerous slides. Tornadoes, volcanoes, wildfires and hurricanes make headlines. They are also attracting more scientific attention.
And climate change is making these slides more common. In fact, they are classic examples of the cascading effect of a changed climate. Drought is not the only cause. Across Asia, melting snow and ice are flooding rivers and eroding hillsides, making them prone to collapse. In June last year, 61 people were killed in landslides caused by heavy rains in India.
Why aren’t scientists paying more attention to this threat? The US Geological Survey has a landslide research program, but most universities don’t. Richard Iverson told me that he recently retired from the USGS after a career studying landslides and debris flows. If you search for Academy membership using the keyword “landslide,” you will find seismologists, geophysicists specializing in theoretical rock mechanics, and geologists specializing in the biodynamics that shape landscapes. 3 names found. None of the three works are primarily about landslides.
One reason for this lack of research is money. US federal funding for biomedical research has remained high, surging to over $25 billion annually between 1990 and 2000. Meanwhile, funding in all other areas, including physics, environmental sciences, other life sciences, mathematics, and even computer science, remained relatively flat. Environmental science, where slide research falls, typically receives less than $5 billion annually.
Another problem is that the slides are notoriously difficult to study. The basic idea is simple. A slope becomes unstable when gravity exceeds the force holding it. This happens when a hillside is undercut (for example, by a rising river), steepened, or when heavy rainfall reduces friction. But rocks and soils are so variable that it’s almost impossible to predict when a particular hill will collapse. Because ambiguous results are difficult to publish, scientists may choose other research topics that seem more promising.
Slide is also haunted by siled science. As one civil engineer said: Different government agencies oversee monitoring, warning, and management of floods and droughts, albeit at the same water cycle extremes. ”
Also, scientists like to pick up what they find interesting, and the slides seem to be inadequate. Many researchers consider their work to be a kind of detective story, and by “interesting” we mean understanding the underlying hidden mechanisms. Cancer research, for example, began to focus on the genetic causes of disease rather than prevention. is not hidden. They occur very clearly on the surface and the mechanism is clear in some respects. “Many scientists are most intrigued by the most mysterious,” says Iverson. The slide is devastating, but not mystical.
I don’t blame scientists for wanting to study what they find fascinating. Many great works are motivated by mystery. But researchers must find a way to balance their love of intrigue with the need to solve pressing problems like slippery ground underfoot.
This is an opinion and analysis article and the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily Scientific American.
