Climate Wire | The EPA is set to release its toughest power plant standards in history on Thursday, but that alone won’t be enough to meet President Joe Biden’s near-term climate change goals.
Biden builds his commitments to the Paris Agreement around a U.S. power grid that will run 80 percent clean energy by 2030 and have net zero emissions five years from now. In contrast, the EPA rule will achieve relatively modest emission reductions from power plants through 2030.
The EPA’s draft rule to be released Thursday morning would require new and existing gas power plants (excluding those operating only part-time) to capture 90% of their emissions by 2035. Existing coal-fired power plants need to reach their 90% target by 2030. However, only if the operator plans to continue operation in 2040.
Reductions in EPA projects in the early stages of this rule will be relatively modest. In regulatory documents on the EPA’s draft rule, it is estimated that in 2028 he will reduce CO2 by 10 million tons compared to 2027. The U.S. power sector emitted 1.539 billion tons of carbon last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The emissions curve will drop sharply after 2030, and especially by 2035, according to EPA documents, but the rule will never lead to a zero-carbon grid.
But EPA Administrator Michael Reagan expressed confidence in a phone call with reporters yesterday afternoon that “ultimately, we will be squarely in line with the president’s goal of 100 percent by 2035.”
White House Climate Change Advisor Ali Zaidi said in the same conference call that the president’s Paris pledge to halve economy-wide emissions by 2030 will be met through the “Comprehensive Plan for Climate and Clean Energy.” said it would. This includes not only regulation, but also newly enacted clean energy incentives and other policies, he said.
The EPA’s power plant proposal “strengthens our trajectory in the power sector, an important sector of the economy,” Zaidi said.
The EPA projects that the proposed rule will save 600 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2042, the equivalent of taking half of the cars off the road in a year. . EPA will accept public comments for 60 days after publication of the rule. The draft also formally rescinds the weak power plant carbon standards of the Trump administration.
The EPA’s proposal covers three power plant categories: new and existing gas power plants, and existing coal-fired power plants. Newly built coal has been regulated since 2015, and the EPA said in a fact sheet that it decided not to revise its standards because “no more new facilities are expected.”
The draft rule would give utilities years of lead time to build carbon capture or hydrogen infrastructure or shut down plants.
Decommissioning and renovation
Regan acknowledged on the conference call that the EPA expects the rule will lead to the retirement of some coal plants, but stressed that that would be up to utilities and states to decide. However, the proposal’s modest requirements for decommissioned coal-fired power plants and seldom-used gas facilities could influence those business decisions.
Coal plants that commit to retiring by 2032 or operating at up to 20% capacity prior to the 2035 retirement date will only be required to perform “regular maintenance.” Coal-fired power plants that do not meet these criteria but are scheduled for retirement in 2040 will either burn 40 percent of the gas or find alternatives to achieve similar reductions. Gas plants operating at up to 20% capacity are only required to burn low-emission fuels.
The most stringent targets apply to so-called baseload gas and coal intended for long-distance operation. Gas plants will be provided with an alternative compliance route to phase in co-firing with low-carbon hydrogen in 2032 and up to 96 percent hydrogen mix by 2038.
In the same call, senior EPA officials said the EPA aims to avoid retrofit requests for plants that are nearing the end of their useful lives and may not be able to recoup their investment. Another official said a subsequent implementation plan would ensure the power company can honor its retirement promises.
It is likely that a significant proportion of the reductions due to regulation will ultimately come from decommissioning rather than retrofitting.
Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association, which represents the coal industry, said the retirement of coal plants appears to be the purpose of the EPA, arguing it would be a legal vulnerability. bottom.
“There are certainly coal plants with long lifespans left,” he said of CCS. “It is very difficult to justify spending so much money on compliance technology that is worth more than the plant itself.”
But Reagan said the overall cost of the draft rule would be “negligible.” The EPA projects up to $85 billion in benefits from avoiding climate change and health impacts.
EPA officials also noted that the favorable tax credit for carbon capture was expanded last year from $50 to $85 per tonne of CO2, which could reduce the cost of CCS retrofits at some plants. said that the full amount of the
States and utilities will be given the option to meet the EPA’s final standards through alternative means. That could include building renewable energy instead of CCS and hydrogen.
“Upgrades may keep gas and coal viable in the short term,” said Jim Murphy, director of legal advocacy for the National Wildlife Federation. “But as renewable energy gets cheaper and cheaper, will that investment pay off in the long run?”
“According to this rule, plants [that utilities] We know that in 30 years it will be obsolete, and in five or 10 years it could be obsolete,” he said.
This story also appears in energy wire.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides important news for energy and environmental professionals.
