Global warming above 1.5°C could accelerate melting of polar ice sheets
Sebnem Koskun/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Meteorologists from the UK Met Office say it is now “highly” likely that the world will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C climate change target within five years.
The Meteorological Agency said in an analysis prepared for the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that the global average temperature could rise by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels over at least one year from 2023 to 2027. announced that it was 66%. .
This will be the first time that the standards set to avoid the worst effects of global warming have been exceeded.
In 2015, countries pledged to limit the increase in global average temperature to “well below” 2°C under the Paris Agreement, and to strive to keep warming below 1.5°C.
Warming beyond this lower bound threatens to destroy the world’s coral reefs, cause polar ice sheets to melt unabated, and push small island nations to sea level rise.
A yearly temperature increase of more than 1.5°C would not constitute a formal breach of the Paris target. It will only happen if the warming continues for decades or longer.
But it would be a clear and alarming signal that the world is on track to exceed its temperature targets, Met Office’s Adam Scaife told reporters.
“We are now temporarily reaching levels above 1.5 degrees Celsius, the first time in human history that we have been this close,” he said. “This shows that we are very close to Parisian standards.”
The likelihood of temporary temperatures exceeding 1.5°C in the short term has risen steadily since 2015, when the probability was near zero. The Japan Meteorological Agency has suggested that by 2022, it is “fifty-fifty” likely that in any one of the five years from 2022 to 2026, the temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C.
Rising greenhouse gas emissions and a shift to an El Niño weather pattern expected later this year have made a 1.5°C overshoot even more likely, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
El Niño and La Niña are terms used to describe variations in the global climate system caused by changes in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 90% chance of an El Niño event by the end of the year, after three years of La Niña events that have helped cool the planet.
A strong El Niño could temporarily increase the average global temperature by 0.3°C, adding to the warming already caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
“A warming El Niño event is expected to occur in the coming months, combined with man-made climate change, will push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” WMO Secretary-General Peteri Taalas said in a statement. Let’s go,” he said.
Even if temperatures do not exceed the 1.5°C threshold, it is almost certain that the world will experience record warmth over the next five years.
The warmest year we’ve ever observed was 2016, when average temperatures were 1.28°C above pre-industrial levels. The Japan Meteorological Agency says there is a 98% chance that the record will be broken by the end of 2027.
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