The following essay is reprinted with permission 
The Conversation is an online publication covering the latest research.
The next five years will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, with twice a chance of exceeding the critical global warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the World Meteorological Organization said. A new report predicts that should.
Known as the “Global Annual-Decadal Climate Update,” the report warned that unless humanity cuts greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, the heat record could worsen beyond the last decade. He warns it will get worse.
So what’s driving the bleak outlook over the next five years? The projected El Niño, in addition to the overall warming trend, could push global temperatures to record levels.
If the global average temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold within the next five years, will the Paris Agreement already fail? , would be a harsh warning of what might happen.
Record heat is inevitable due to global warming
The latest information from the World Meteorological Organization says there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest day on record. And he has a 66% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold for at least a year.
There is also a 32% chance that the average temperature over the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The probability of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. In the years 2017-2021, the probability was 10%.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have already increased the average global temperature by more than 1°C since the late 19th century. The latest information points out that global average temperatures in 2022 were about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average, despite the cooling effects of the La Niña event. At present, the temperature is increasing by about 0.2°C every 10 years.
More than a century of global average temperature data has now been accumulated. In other words, setting new records will not be easy and will become increasingly difficult. If there were no trends, we would expect the records to decrease over time and the data collected to better capture the full range of natural climate variability.
Rather, the world is warming so rapidly that more heat records are being set at the global and regional levels. Human impact on the climate is causing temperatures to reach unprecedented highs with alarming frequency.
Addition of El Niño could lead to extreme high pressure
The current average global temperature record dates back to 2016. A large El Niño event occurred earlier in the year, causing the average global temperature to rise.
El Niño events are associated with warmer-than-normal seas over much of the central and eastern Pacific. This warms the lower atmosphere, increasing the temperature of the Earth by about 0.1°C. This may not sound like much, but the rapid warming of the background is often enough to break previous records.
In the seven years since the current global temperature record, humans have continued to intensify the greenhouse effect. This makes it even more likely that a new record will be achieved.
An El Niño event is beginning to form in the Pacific, and it is becoming more likely that it will occur in June and July. This could be the first large El Niño since 2016. An El Niño, in particular, makes him much more likely to break the record for the highest average global temperature for that year, especially in 2024.
Does that mean the Paris Agreement has already failed?
Almost every country in the world has signed the Paris Agreement. The goal is to keep global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, preferably below 1.5°C.
Projections that global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C each year are alarming. But that doesn’t mean we failed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The agreement aims to limit long-term global warming to levels that avoid significant climate impacts, including ecosystem loss. Exceeding the 1.5°C level for one or two years is not considered a failure.
However, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the world is approaching a global warming level of 1.5°C. Forecasts for years likely to exceed that level should act as a warning.
This article originally appeared in The Conversation. Please read the original article.
