El Niño climate events cost tropical countries trillions of dollars

The expected arrival of El Niño this year could trigger devastating storms, droughts, floods and wildfires with widespread economic impact.

El Niño is a condition that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise by at least 0.5°C above the long-term average, causing changes in weather patterns worldwide, especially in some regions.

For example, Peru and Ecuador often cause stronger storms and more flooding, while Indonesia and Australia tend to cause droughts, wildfires and coral reef bleaching.

A new analysis shows that the economic impact on the hardest-hit countries could be severe and long-lasting.

Christopher Callaghan of Dartmouth College in New Hampshire and his colleagues analyzed GDP data from 1960 to 2019 for 147 countries to identify the economic impact of El Niño.

They found that it has significant effects for up to five years after the event. For example, the 1982-1983 El Niño event cost the global economy $4.1 trillion, while the 1997-1998 El Niño event cost $5.7 trillion. Most of this has been borne by poor countries in the tropics, where the effects of El Niño tend to be felt most pronounced.

“El Niño is very costly and has a much greater economic impact than previously understood,” says Callahan. “[These events] Triggering a sustained decline in economic growth beyond a simple plunge from which countries quickly recover. ”

This study is the first to suggest such a long-term and severe economic impact from El Niño. In 2017, a study by Camial Mohades and colleagues at the University of Cambridge found that El Niño patterns could have short-term economic hits in some countries, but positive economic impacts in others. suggested that there is

For example, in the United States, more rainfall in California could boost hydroelectricity and boost crop yields, while milder temperatures on the east coast of the United States could lower home heating costs and boost retail and leisure spending. spending could be stimulated.

Mohades is skeptical that the El Niño event will have as long-lasting and severe global economic impact as this latest study suggests. “On the net, El Niño is positive for the global economy,” he says.

“Certainly, there are some countries that are adversely affected by El Niño. But there are many countries that are not affected by El Niño, and there are countries that are positively affected by El Niño,” Mohades said.

Callahan said his results were consistent with previous research, but emphasized that the new study evaluated national rather than regional data to assess long-term effects. “Our numbers are higher and probably a more accurate description. [El Niño’s] It costs more than theirs,” he says.

“From a purely geophysical standpoint, I think it’s clear that El Niño is a disaster for many parts of the world, especially in the tropics,” said Justin Mankin, who also worked on the study at Dartmouth College. “It has said. They have the lowest incomes and are the least resilient to climate change. ”

Meteorologists expect another El Niño event by the end of this year, and warmer sea surface temperatures, especially in the Pacific, have raised fears that the El Niño event will become more intense. This will have a significant impact on both global average temperatures and weather patterns around the world.

Better El Niño predictions and preparedness would improve countries’ ability to cope, Mankin said. But climate change is amplifying the effects of El Niño by pushing up the background rate of atmospheric warming, making reducing emissions a priority, he added.

“These results reveal that we are not well adapted to our current climate, and when El Niño events and global warming coincide, the trends amplify each other’s impacts. It’s just that,” he says. “Everything we can do to prepare for adaptation is absolutely essential, but the importance of climate mitigation as a primary means of preventing further damage should never be underestimated.”